Storm Francine Is Set to Strike Louisiana Wednesday

(Bloomberg) — Tropical Storm Francine is expected to reach hurricane strength before making landfall in Louisiana Wednesday on a path that has shuttered some offshore oil platforms but will likely miss major gas export plants. 
On its current track, Francine could graze Morgan City and Baton Rouge, with impacts from its winds extending as far east as New Orleans, before pushing into Mississippi. Aside from coastal flooding caused by a storm surge that may reach as high as 10 feet (3 meters), there is a moderate chance of flash flooding for New Orleans and other parts of southeastern Louisiana, the US Weather Prediction Center said. 
With top winds of 65 miles (105 kilometers) per hour, the storm is about 360 miles southwest of Morgan City, the National Hurricane Center said in an advisory at 4 p.m. Houston time. Francine is expected to bypass liquefied natural gas facilities clustered around the Texas-Louisiana border, including Cheniere Energy Inc.’s Sabine Pass terminal. 
Earlier forecasts that Francine would reach Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale have been revised downward, with its top winds now expected to reach 90 mph, making it a Category 1 storm. Still, Francine will likely cause $2.7 billion in damage and losses, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. There is a chance it will weaken as it comes ashore, which would drop losses to about $1 billion. Francine would be the third hurricane to hit the US mainland this year. 
Late Monday and into Tuesday, Francine’s winds remained stable, which “seems to be putting a cap on the upside intensity risk,” said Matt Rogers, president of Commodity Weather Group LLC. It still has to cross some warm water that will provide fuel for strengthening, but Francine also faces wind conditions that could damage the storm’s structure and limit its power. 
Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency as Francine approached. A hurricane warning is in effect for a small slice of the Louisiana coast, from Cameron to Grand Isle. Storm surge warnings are in place from Sabine Pass to the Mississippi-Alabama border, as well as Lake Pontchartrain to the north of New Orleans.
Chevron Corp., Exxon Mobil Corp. and Shell Plc are among companies taking measures like evacuating workers from vulnerable installations, suspending drilling activities and shutting in some wells. Federal officials said the total amount of shut-in oil represented nearly a quarter of current crude production in the Gulf of Mexico. Gas supply to US LNG export plants was down 3.2% Tuesday from a day earlier. Five Gulf Coast refineries also lie in the storm’s track. Residents near Exxon Mobil’s Beaumont, Texas refinery were warned to shelter in place and seal doorways, in case of a gas release from the plant.
Meanwhile, the US Coast Guard declared Port Condition Yankee Tuesday at Beaumont, Port Arthur, and other key Texas ports, a warning that rough weather is expected within 24 hours. Louisiana’s Port Fourchon also began emergency evacuations.
One upside to Francine as it moves ashore is that it will bring much-needed water to the parched Mississippi River, where low water levels have threatened to roil shipments of everything from corn to gasoline. But rains will make field work harder, delaying harvests and reducing grain quality. 
The hurricane center is tracking two other disturbances in the central Atlantic Ocean with the potential to become tropical storms. Both are hundreds of miles from populated areas.
–With assistance from Ruth Liao, Tarso Veloso, Robert Tuttle, Cedric Sam, Kevin Crowley, Christopher Charleston and Mitchell Ferman.
(Updates storm location and path in second and third paragraphs, NWS warning locations in paragraph six and port conditions in paragraph eight.)
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